Despite several crises, 2024 has surprised many economists with its resilience. Inflation, which soared previously, has shown signs of decline. With the International Monetary Fund declaring a significant victory in combating rising costs, projections indicate inflation could stabilize around 3.5% by late 2025. While this brings relief to consumers, concerns remain regarding potential inflationary spikes if geopolitical conflicts, particularly in the Middle East, worsen.
The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the anticipated policies of president-elect Donald Trump, whose stance on tariffs poses a real threat to international trade. His proposed tariffs could risk igniting trade wars with China and other nations, leading to increased economic tension. Such a scenario would not only impact the U.S economy but could have global repercussions, potentially slowing growth in developing and emerging markets.
China grapples with domestic challenges as its economy experiences deflation and sluggish growth linked to a real estate crisis. Predictions of falling significantly short of growth targets signal potential economic instability ahead. With substantial investment in real estate and an oversupply situation, analysts argue that China may need to implement stronger fiscal and monetary policies to stimulate growth effectively.
In 2024, the world economy has had a turbulent ride yet has shown resilience against numerous challenges. Inflation, after peaking at unprecedented levels, has begun to decline, with the International Monetary Fund forecasting it to stabilize at around 3.5% by the close of 2025. This gradual decrease in inflation is expected to ease the burden of living costs for consumers. However, geopolitical tensions, especially in the Middle East, could potentially rekindle inflation if conflicts escalate. Historical patterns indicate that warfare in the region typically drives oil prices up, which could complicate economic stability internationally in the coming year. Simultaneously, the global landscape is marked by trade tensions, notably between the U.S and China. The upcoming presidential inauguration of Donald Trump has raised significant concerns regarding his plans for increased tariffs, amidst threats against nations that challenge the U.S. dollar. Such moves could ignite a global trade war, further complicating international relations and economic cooperation. Stakeholders are watching closely as these developments unfold, concerned about their implications for global trade and economic growth. Furthermore, China’s economy faces unique challenges, including deflation, a struggling real estate sector, and significant overproduction amidst underconsumption. The Chinese government’s efforts to address these issues have fallen short in keeping growth on target, with predictions suggesting only about 4.8% growth for 2024. As Europe grapples with its own economic challenges, including political crisis and downturns in key economies like France and Germany, the bright spots appear few and far between. Overall, experts suggest that while 2025 presents opportunities for recovery, the landscape remains fraught with potential pitfalls that could impact global economic stability and growth.Southern South America, Australia and New Zealand will grow exponentially because word is out globally that these non-NATO areas will agriculturally survive Nuclear Winter.
One thing you didnt touch on is that even though regular people only own very little stocks compared to the richest people, most people do still own stocks, in their savings or in their pensions. So while regular people benefit much less from inflating the bubble, they still have a vested interest in keeping it going.
The Chinese economy is not as precarious as you suggest. It has substantial currency reserves, much of which have been converted to gold, and China has significantly deleveraged from the US market while developing new markets in the global south. 4.8% growth is not recession, and the domestic deflation is a necessary adjustment to inflation caused by a real estate bubble; most Chinese live in their properties, speculators (including institution ones) are due a haircut.
Stocks up so economy must be up. Lmao. Most American thing you can hear. News for the ruling class and capital owners, not for the middle class who are living pay to pay due to inflation.
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There is no acceptable use of tariffs. There is reciprocity in international trade which makes it political.
